Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,246$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(489 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,198.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,198.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(16.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-06-01

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,871$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(8.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,177.1}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(30,177.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,920$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(388 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,889.7}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,889.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $451$ on 2020-06-01

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $233,197$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,008.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(227,008.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,475$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,419.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(32,419.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,367$ on 2020-06-01

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,811,360$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.88 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,795,151.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,795,151.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $105,165$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,051.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(104,051.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,247,964$ on 2020-06-01

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $277,736$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,348.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(278,348.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,127$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(5.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(37,460.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $237,388$ on 2020-06-01

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,814$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,930.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(39,930.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,403$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(472 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,372.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,372.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,440$ on 2020-06-01

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $183,594$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.19 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,183.0}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(175,183.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,555$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,318.9}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,318.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,407$ on 2020-06-01

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 98%
Taiwan* recovered 97%
Andorra recovered 97%
Austria recovered 95%
Croatia recovered 95%
Niger recovered 90%
Japan recovered 88%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Estonia recovered 87%
Germany recovered 87%
Denmark recovered 81%
Malta recovered 79%
Lithuania recovered 64%
Italy recovered 62%
Turkey recovered 61%
Georgia recovered 57%
Czechia recovered 57%
Chad recovered 54%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 52%
Morocco recovered 48%
San Marino recovered 43%
Serbia recovered 43%
Hungary recovered 41%
Jamaica recovered 39%
Romania recovered 39%
Singapore recovered 38%
Qatar recovered 30%
Saudi Arabia recovered 22%
Sierra Leone recovered 22%
Bulgaria recovered 15%
Algeria recovered 6%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,473$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(526 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,458.9}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,458.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(24.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(105.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-06-01

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,019$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,862.7}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,862.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(28 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(107.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-06-01

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $443$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(129 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436.1}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(436.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-06-01

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-01

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $765$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{754.1}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(754.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-06-01

Best fit exponential: \(17.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-06-01